US index decline is not that impossible, Up goes the Gold
From the weekly chart, the long-term trend of the US dollar index is bullish. This long-term trend has begun since early 2011. The US Dollar Index from the beginning of 2017 to the beginning of 2018 set a one-year downtrend and dropped from a peak of 103. 78 to the floor price of 88.12 units. However, since the beginning of 2018, the dollar has entered a correctional phase. The US Dollar Index should pass through the 103.78 peak, so the uptrend will continue. Otherwise, if the dollar index goes below the seven-year trend line, the market trend will change to the downside. Last week, the US dollar index did not react to the weak bullish pins, and in the aftermath of the downside of the canal ceiling and resistance of 97.55 units, it fell again to minor support of 95.85.
Since the 95-85 rate is a minor support, the likelihood of a failure of this rate, along with the uptrend pitch sequence and the movement of the market to the bottom of the channel, is there. The bottom of the canal is between the range 95-94.40. It is expected that around the range of 95-94.40 will see the presence of buyers in the market and the narrowing of the dollar’s downside movements.
In contrast, if the 95-85 unit rate maintains its position in support, it could reinstate
the dollar index to 97.50 and the channel’s ceiling. To continue the ascending moves, it is best to wait for the deflection of 97.50 and the ceiling of the channel.
Gold ounces have offset 61.8 percent of the fall in 2018
On the weekly chart, global gold ounce trades in neutral from July 2016 to today. The market fluctuates below $ 1,375 over the past two years, and at $ 1222 over the floor. At the beginning of 2018, the gold peaked at $ 1,366, followed by the fall of the uplink channel at $ 1,160. However, in the past few months, the market has begun a bullish and upward trend. This bullish return has been on the medium-term ascending channel. Last week, the $ 1265 defeat signal and the canal ceiling were issued on the daily chart and the market was able to move around 61.8% Fibonacci after the resistance to a near resistance level of 1285 dollars.
Although ounces have crossed the canal over the ounce, the resistance is 1285 and 1300 dollars ahead. To keep the upside to a key resistance of $ 1365, the range of 1285-1300 should be broken. In the event of a $ 1300 Rand resistance breakdown on the daily chart, you can enter into a trading deal with a profit margin of $ 1365. Limit losses will also be determined based on the daily signal.
But the probability of a negative market reaction to the resistance levels is 1285 and $ 1,300, which could be expected to reduce the price of gold to 1265,1250 when issuing a daily downtrend signal.